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当前位置:综合资讯 > 聚焦 > 正文 请输入关键字搜索文章 世界钢铁协会发布最新短期钢铁需求预测

文章出处:西安欧钛特钢有限公司 发表时间:2020/10/21

SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUIJINRIFABULEZUIXINBANDE2020NIANHE2021NIANDUANQIGANGTIEXUQIUYUCEJIEGUO。JINGUANBENCIYUCEJIEGUORENGRANBIAOMING2020NIANXUQIUJIANGCHUXIANXIAJIANG,DANSHIJIANGFUYUANXIAOYUCIQIANDEYUQI。

SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUIYUCE,2020NIANQUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGWEISUO-2.4%, XIAJIANGZHI17.251YIDUN。2021NIAN,QUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIULIANGYUJIJIANGHUIFUZHI17.951YIDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG4.1%。YOUYUZHONGGUODEQIANGJINGFUSU,JINNIANQUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIULIANGDEXIAJIANGFUDUJIANGYOUSUOJIANSHAO。FENGSUOCUOSHIJIESHUHOU,SHIJIEQITAGUOJIADEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGCHAOCHUWOMENZHIQIANDEYUCE。JINGUANRUCI,2020NIANWULUNFADAJINGJITIHAISHIFAZHANZHONGJINGJITI,GANGTIEXUQIULIANGRENGJIANGCHUXIANSHENDUWEISUO,ZHIDAO2021NIANCAIJIANGBUFENHUIFU。

BENCIYUCERENWEI,JINGUANQUANQIUDUOGEGUOJIAMUQIANCHUXIANYIQINGFANDAN,DANBINGBUHUIZAIDUCAIQUQUANGUOXINGDEFENGSUOCUOSHI。XIANGFANDI,TONGGUOYOUXUANZEDI、YOUMUDEXINGDICAIQUYIXIEFANGYICUOSHI,JIANGNENGGOUEZHIDIERBOYIQING。

SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUISHICHANGYANJIUWEIYUANHUIZHUXIAl RemeithiDUIBENCIYUCEJIEGUOFABIAOPINGLUNSHIBIAOSHI:“JINNIAN4YUE,QUANQIUGANGTIEXINGYEYIJINGCONGGANGTIEXUQIULIANGDEZUIDIDIANZHONGHUIFU,ZI5YUEZHONGXUNYILAIYIZHICHENGXIANFUSUTAISHI。JINGUANRUCI,SHIJIEGEGUOZAIEZHIXINGUANBINGDUCHUANBO、GUONEICHANYEJIEGOUYIJIJINGJIFUCHICUOSHIDENGFANGMIANGEBUXIANGTONG,YINCIQUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIUDEHUIFUSUDUBINGBUJUNHENG。ZHONGGUOBIAOXIANCHULINGRENJINGYADEFANDANRENXING,CUSHI2020NIANQUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIUZENGZHANGYUQIDAFUSHANGDIAO。ZAISHIJIEQITAGUOJIA,WULUNSHIFADAJINGJITIHAISHIFAZHANZHONGJINGJITI,WOMENJIANGKANDAOGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIJUWEISUO。DUIYUFAZHANZHONGJINGJITIERYAN,ZHEICHANGWEIJIJIJUTIAOZHAN,MIANDUIYIQINGSHIKONG、SHANGPINJIAGEDIMIYIJICHUKOUHELVYOUYEDEXIADIE,ZHEIXIEGUOJIAGUCISHIBI。XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDALIUXINGJIAKUAILEBUFENQUANQIUXINGDAQUSHIDEFAZHANSUDU,ZHEIXIEDAQUSHIYIZHIZAIZHUJIANZHUANBIANWOMENDEGANGTIEJIXIAYOUXINGYE,TAMENZAOCHENGDEZHANGQIYINGXIANGYUANYUANCHAOGUODUANQIYINGXIANG。”

预测背景

ZICONGDABUFENJINGJITIZAI5YUEZHONGXUNZHONGQIJINGJIHUODONGYILAI,JIYAXUQIUDESHIFANGDAILAIJINGJIHUODONGDEQIANGSHIFANDAN,XINGCHENG“V”XINGFUSUGUOCHENG。BUGUO,MUQIANWEIZHI,ZHEIYIDIANSHANGBUZUYIDIXIAOGEGUOFENGSUOQIJIANDAILAIDEJINGJIXIADIE。XUDUOYONGGANGXINGYERENGRANDIYUXINGUANYIQINGZHIQIANDESHUIPING。

YOUYUDIERBOYIQINGDECHUXIAN、SHEJIAOGELICUOSHIDEYANXU、JUGAOBUXIADESHIYELVHEXINXINDEBUZU,ZAIJIASHANGRENMENDUIXUQIUHUIFUSHIJIANDIANDEDANYOU,XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGQIJIANDEJINGJIHUIFURENGXIANCUIRUO。

BUGUO,CONGJIJIDEYIMIANLAIKAN,YOUYUDIYIBOYIQINGDAILAIDEJINGYANJIAOXUN,XIANZAIWEISHENGXITONGYINGDUIXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDENENGLIDAFUTIGAO。MUQIAN,GEGUODOUZAIXUNQIUEZHIBINGDUYUBAOCHIJINGJIZHIJIANDEWEIMIAOPINGHENG。LINGWAI,ZAIJIJIANGDAOLAIDELIUGANJI,BEIBANQIUGUOJIASHANGBUQUEDINGXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGJIANGHUIRUHEFAZHAN,ZHEIYIDIANKENENGDUI2021NIANGANGTIEXUQIUYUCECHANSHENGZHONGDAYINGXIANG。FENGXIANDETIANPINGXIANGZHEBULIFANGXIANGQINGXIE。WOMENHAIBUNENGPAICHU“W”XINGJINGJIFUSUDEKENENGXING,ERQIE2021NIANYEBUTAIKENENGCHUXIANQUANMIANFUSU。

1中国

ZHONGGUOJINGJICONG2YUEDIKAISHICHUXIANQIANGJINGFUSU,BINGQIEFUSUQUSHIWENBUFAZHAN,JINGUANZHONGGUOGDPZAIDIYIJIDUJIANGDI-6.8%,DANCONG2020NIANQUANNIANLAIKAN,RENGJIANGCHUXIANZHENGZENGZHANG。

1YUEZHI8YUEQIJIAN,ZHONGGUODEFANGDICHANTOUZITONGBIZENGZHANG4.6%,JICHUSHESHITOUZIHUIFUZHIQUNIANSHUIPING。8YUEFEN,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYEHEQICHEXINGYETONGBIZENGZHANGFENBIEDADAO10.9%HE7.6%。YINCI,1YUEZHI8YUEQIJIAN,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYEDECHANCHUCHAOGUOLE2019NIANDESHUIPING(+1.2%),BUGUOQICHEXINGYECHANCHURENGRANBI2019NIANDI9%。SUIZHELINGSHOUYEZAI8YUEYINGTOUGANSHANG,ZHONGGUOJINGJIZHENGZAIKUAISUQUANMIANHUIFUZHIZHENGCHANGSHUIPING。

2020NIAN,YOUYUZHENGFUTUICHUDEXINJICHUSHESHIJIANSHEDECIJICUOSHIHEFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEQIANGSHIBIAOXIAN,YUJIZHONGGUODEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGZENGZHANG8.0%。2021NIAN,ZHUYAOYOUYUYIXIALIANGGEYINSU,YUJIGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGBIAOXIANPINGHUAN。SHOUXIAN,2021NIANDEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGJIXUYOU2020NIANQIDONGDEXINJICHUSHESHIHEZHUFANGJIANSHEXIANGMUTIGONGZHICHENG。QICI,RUGUOJINGJICHUXIANQUANMIANFUSUJIXIANG,ZHENGFUDEJINGJICIJIZHENGCEYOUKENENGCHUXIANFANZHUAN,JIANZHUXINGYEYOUSUOJIANGWEN。JIANYU2021NIANQUANQIUJINGJIDEPIRUANYUQI,ZHONGGUOZHIZAOYEDEFANDANJIANGHENYOUXIAN。

2发达经济体

ZAIFADAJINGJITI,2019NIANNIANDIZHIZAOYEGANGGANGCONGSHUAITUIZHONGHUIFU,MASHANGYOUZAOYUXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDEDAJI。SUIRANJINGJIZHONGQIHOU,ZHIZAOYECHUXIANQIANGLIFANDAN,BINGQIEHUIDAOLEYIQINGZHIQIANDESHUIPING,DANJINNIANQUANNIANJIANGBUKEBIMIANDICHUXIANGAODALIANGWEISHUDEWEISUO。

ZAIMEIGUO,ZAIZHENGFUDEDALIZHICHIXIA,FENGSUOCUOSHIGUOHOUDEJINGJIHUIFUGUOCHENGBIAOXIANQIANGJING。ZHIZAOYEHUILUODECHIXUSHIJIANHELIEDUJUNDIYUYUQI。JINGUANRUCI,MEIGUORENGRANZAIEZHIBINGDUCHUANBOSHANGZHUOJINJIANZHOU,WEILAIJIGEYUEDEFUSUDONGLIHUIZHUJIANXIAJIANG。2021NIANDEYUQIBUTAILEGUAN,JIANZHUYEHEQICHESHENGCHANDOUJIANGSHOUDAOYIZHI。

ZAIOUZHOU,YOUYUQIANGYOULIDESHEHUIBAOZHANGJIHUAHECAIZHENGCIJICUOSHI,XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDAILAIDEFUMIANJINGJIYINGXIANGDEYIHUANHE。OUMENGFENGSUOGUOHOUDEJINGJIFUSULIDUCHAOCHUYUQI,JINGUANRUCI,YOUYUZHUYAOYONGGANGXINGYE(YOUQISHIQICHEXINGYE)DESHENDUWEISUO, 2020NIANOUZHOUJINGJIJIANGCHUXIANLIANGWEISHUDEWEISUO,YIDALIHEXIBANYAJIANGYOUWEIMINGXIAN。

ZAIRIBENHEHANGUO,JINGUANLIANGGUODUIXINGUANBINGDUDEFANGKONGXIANGDUICHENGGONG,BINGQIECAIQUDEBINGDUEZHICUOSHIXIANGDUIKUANSONG,DANSHI2020NIANLIANGGUODEGANGTIEXUQIURENGJIANGCHUXIANDAFUWEISUO,TONGSHIYOUYUCHUKOUXIADIEHEXINXINBUZU,MINGNIANDEHUIFUCHENGDUYEJIANGYOUXIAN。

FADAJINGJITIDEGANGTIEXUQIUZONGLIANGYUJI2020NIANJIANGXIADIE14.9%,DAN2021NIANJIANGZENGZHANG7.9%。

DUIYUFADAJINGJITIDEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGERYAN,XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDALIUXINGZAOCHENGDEYINGXIANGYAODIYUQUANQIUXINGJINRONGWEIJI,BUGUOTONGSHIYAOZHUYI,ZAIYIQINGDALIUXINGCHUQI,GANGTIEXUQIULIANGHAIMEIYOUHUIFUDAO2008/09NIANJINRONGWEIJIQIANDESHUIPING。

3发展中经济体(不含中国)

ZHENGTILAIKAN,ZAIXISHOUYIQINGCHONGJIYINGXIANGSHANG,XINXINGJINGJITINENGLIBUZU,BINGQIEYOUYUJINGJIJIEGOUDECHAYIHESUOCAIQUDEEZHICUOSHIQIANGDUDEBUTONG,YIQINGJIXINXINGJINGJITIZAOCHENGDEYINGXIANGYEBUYIZHI。YIQINGZAOCHENGDEYINGXIANGBAOKUOGUONEIXUQIUDEKUAISUXIADIE、CHUKOUHESHANGPINJIAGEDEBENGKUIYIJILVYOUYEDEBAODIE,MUQIANHAIWUFAKANDAOMASHANGHUIFUDEJIXIANG。DUIYUZHUYAODEXINXINGJINGJITI,YUJI2020NIANGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGCHUXIANLIANGWEISHUZIDEXIADIE。

YOUYUWEINENGYOUXIAOKONGZHIYIQING,YINDUHEBAXIZAOYUDESUNSHIZUIDA。YINDUSHISHILEQUANQIUZUIWEIYANGEDEFENGSUOCUOSHI,YUJIGAIGUODEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGCHUXIANJISHINIANLAIZUIDADIEFU。BUGUO,ZAINONGCUNXIAOFEIHEZHENGFUJICHUSHESHITOUZIDEZHICHENGXIA,2021NIANHUICHUXIANXIANGDUIJIAOKUAIDEFUSUGUOCHENG。

ZAILADINGMEIZHOU,YOUYUJIEGOUXINGWENTIYIJIWEIJIGUANLIBUSHAN,XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGZAOCHENGLEZHANGQIXINGYANZHONGYINGXIANG。SUIZHIERLAIDEGAIGEZHONGDUANHESHEHUIBUWEN,YUSHIGAIDIQUZAI2021NIANJIANGHUANMANHUIFU。

ZAIDONGMENG,BUFENGUOJIAYOUYUGUANLIDEDANG,YINCISUOXUDEFENGSUOCUOSHIXIANGDUIBINGBUSHIFENYANGE。JINGUANRUCI,MALAIXIYAHEFEILVBINLIANGGUOQUESHOUDAOYANZHONGYINGXIANG。YOUYUCHENGGONGDIEZHILEXINGUANFEIYANYIQING,YUENANDEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGJIANGCHUXIANZHENGZENGZHANG。

ZHONGDONGBEIFEIDIQUSHOUDAOXINGUANYIQINGDALIUXINGHEYOUJIAXIADIEDESHUANGZHONGDAJI。

2021NIAN,FAZHANZHONGJINGJITIDEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGYUJIWUFAHUIFUZHIZHENGCHANGSHUIPING,DANZAIJICHUSHESHITOUZIDEDAIDONGXIA,FAZHANZHONGJINGJITIDEHUIFUSUDUJIANGKUAIYUFADAJINGJITI。XINXINGJINGJITI(BUHANZHONGGUO)DEGANGTIEXUQIULIANGYUJIZAI2020NIANJIANGXIADIE12.3%,2021NIANJIANGHUIFUXINGZENGZHANG10.6%。

用钢行业

ZHENGTILAIKAN,YONGGANGXINGYEYINWEIFENGSUOERZAOYUDESUNSHIXIANGDUIJIAOSHAO,BINGQIEHUIFUSUDUYEKUAIYUJIUDIANYE、HANGKONGYEHEYULEYE。YOUYUZHONGXIAOGUIMOQIYEPOCHAN,YONGGANGXINGYEGONGYINGLIANJIANGMIANLINZHANGQIYINGXIANG,ZHIZAOYEDEQIANGLIFANDANJIANGYINCIBEIDIXIAO。

1建筑业

MIANDUIXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDAILAIDECHONGJI,DUOGUOZHENGFUDOUZHONGDIANSHISHIGONGGONGXIANGMU,YINCIJIANZHUYEBAOCHILEJIAOQIANGRENXING。SUIZHEFENGSUOCUOSHIDEFANGSONG,ZHUYAOYOUYUJICHUSHESHITOUZI、JIYAXUQIUDESHIFANG、DIANJIELILVYIJIKUANSONGXINDAI,FADAJINGJITIDEJIANZHUYEDEYIYANXUZHEIYITAISHI。

ZAIXUDUOXINXINGJINGJITI,JIANZHUYEJIANGZAI2020NIANCHUXIANLIANGWEISHUDEWEISUO,TEBIESHITUERQI、MOXIGEHEBAXISANGUO,ZHEISANGEGUOJIAJIANGXIANRUSHENDUSHUAITUIBINGQIEMIANLINRONGZIWENTI。LINGYIFANGMIAN,YOUYUZHONGGUOZHENGFUDECIJICUOSHI,ZHONGGUODEJIANZHUYEJIANGCHUXIANQIANGJINGFANDAN。

2021NIANJINGJIJIANGHUANMANHUIFU。WEILAIJINIAN,YUJIJICHUSHESHITOUZIJIANGDAIDONGJIANZHUYEZENGZHANG,FAZHANZHONGJINGJITIJIANGYOUWEIMINGXIAN。ZHENGFUSHOUZHIEHUADAILAIDERONGZINANTIKENENGGAIBIANTOUZIJIHUA。LINGWAI,YUQIDEYOUJIACHENGYAYEJIANGZUAINENGYUANXINGYETOUZI,MEIGUOHEZHONGDONGBEIFEIDIQUJIANGYOUWEIMINGXIAN。LVSEFUSUJIHUAYOUKENENGTUIDONGFADAJINGJITIDEJICHUSHESHITOUZI。

ZHANGQILAIKAN,SUIZHEBANGONGHEZHUFANGKONGJIANXUQIUMOSHIDEZHUANBIAN,YIJICHENGZHENSHEJIHEJIANZHUFAGUIDEZHONGYAOBIANGENG,JIANZHUYEJIANGCHUXIANJIEGOUXINGBIANHUA。

2汽车业

XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGDALIUXINGJIQICHEXINGYEZAOCHENGXIANZHUYINGXIANG。4YUE,DUOGUOQICHECHANLIANGTONGBIXIADIE70-90%。SUIRANGONGJICEWENTIJIEJUEDEXIANGDUIJIAOKUAI,DANZAIFENGSUOGUOHOU,XINGYEFUSUQUESHOUDAOXUQIUHUIFUHUANMANDEYIZHI。2020NIANDI2JIDU,QUANQIUQICHECHANLIANGTONGBIXIADIE34%。JINGUANRUCI,ZAIZHONGGUO,WENJIANDEGUONEIXUQIUJIAKUAILEXINGYEFUSU,ZHISHICONG2020NIAN1YUEZHI8YUEZHENGTILAIKAN,ZHONGGUODEJIDONGCHECHANLIANGRENGRANBI2019NIANTONGQIDI9%。QITAGUOJIADEQINGKUANGGENGJIAYANJUN。1YUEZHI8YUE,DEGUOHEMEIGUODEQICHECHANLIANGTONGBIXIADIECHAOGUO30%。TONGQI,YINDUDECHENGYONGCHECHANLIANGBIQUNIANXIADIE46.1%,GAIGUODECHENGYONGCHESHENGCHANZAIFENGSUOQIJIANWANQUANTINGZHI。

YUCITONGSHI,QICHEXINGYEZHENGZAIJINGLISHIZHIXINGZHONGZU,GONGYINGLIANJIANGZHONGXINDIAOZHENG,YIZENGJIAXINGYERENXING,CHENGZHENCHUXINGMOSHIJIANGFASHENGGAIBIAN,XIANGDIANDONGQICHEDEGUODURENGJIANGJIXU。

3机械设备行业

YOUYUFENGSUOQIJIANGONGYINGLIANDEDUANLIEHEDINGDANDEJIANSHAO,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYEZAOYUYANZHONGDAJI。2020NIANDI1JIDU,ZHONGGUOJIXIESHEBEIXINGYEZUIZAOCHUXIANWEISUO,DI2JIDUOUMENG、MEIGUOHERIBENYEXIANGJIFASHENGWEISUO。5YUEYILAI,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYECHANCHUDEXIAJIANGQUSHIDEYIJIANHUAN,DANDABUFENGUOJIARENGZAIJIXUWEISUO。YOUYULIRUNXIAHUAHEXINXINBUZU,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYETOUZIXIANGMUCHUXIANYANCHIHUOBEICHEXIAODEQINGKUANG,ZAIJINGLIZUICHUDEXINGYEFANDANZHIHOU,XINGYEHUIFUSUDUHUANMAN。DANZHONGGUOSHIGELIWAI,2020NIAN1YUEZHI8YUEGAIGUOJIXIESHEBEIXINGYEDECHANCHUSHUIPINGCHAOGUO2019NIAN。

CONGZHONGQILAIKAN,YOUYUTOUZIHUIFUQIANJINGSHOUDAOYIZHI,JIXIESHEBEIXINGYEFUSUYOUXIAN。

BIANZHEZHU:

SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUISHISHIJIESHANGZUIDA、ZUIJUHUOLIDEXINGYEXIEHUIZHIYI,CHENGYUANBIANJISHIJIEGEZHUYAOGANGTIESHENGCHANGUO。SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUIDAIBIAOGANGTIESHENGCHANSHANG、GUOJIAHEDIQUGANGTIEXINGYEXIEHUIYIJIGANGTIEYANJIUJIGOU。CHENGYUANGUOZHANQUANQIUGANGTIECHANLIANGDE85%ZUOYOU。

DUANQIGANGTIEXUQIUYUCE(SRO)JIEGUOBAOKUOYUCEBAOGAO、YUGUZHIJIQITAXINXIDENG,JINGUANZHEIXIEQIANZHANXINGDEJIEGUODAIBIAOWOMENMUQIANDUIWEILAIGANGTIEXUQIUDEPANDUAN,DANYUCEJIEGUOCUNZAIZHEFENGXIANXINGJIBUQUEDINGXINGYINSU,KENENGYUSHIJIGANGTIEXUQIUCUNZAIZHONGDADECHAYI,WOMENTIXINGDUZHEBUYAOGUODUYILAIZHEIXIEQIANZHANXINGDEJIEGUO,MUQIANDEYUCEJIEGUOJINDAIBIAOSHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUIZAIBENYUCEJIEGUOFABUZHIRIDEGUANDIAN。(SHIJIEGANGTIEXIEHUI)